システム導入目的その１＝中間搾取層を減らすこと

システム開発 経済

naked capitalismより: More Broker Woes: National Realtors Association Opens Multiple Listings to Internet Brokers

  • NARとは？　National Association of Ramen-eaters: 全米ラーメン食い協会。またの名をNational Association of Realtors: 全米不動産協会。
  • NARは従来会員媒介業者にしか公開していなかったMLS(Multiple Listing Service)のデータをインターネット媒介業者にも配信することを決定。
  • 独占禁止法違反を問う裁判の結果を受けて、NARが飲んだ決定。
  • 従来は売り物件をMLSに登録した媒介業者と、その物件を販売した媒介業者で媒介手数料(3%)を山分けだったのだけど、ネット媒介が普及すると紹介業者側の収入は減る。
  • naked capitalismも指摘しているけど、この決定はMLSそのものの存在を否定しかねない。従来はNARのMLSが「主」で、ネット業者は「従」だったのだけど、ネット業者が全データを扱えるようになったら、わざわざ高い金払ってMLSとネット業者に二重登録する必要はなくなる。
  • 取引相手との交渉も、媒介業者経由ではなく直接専門の法律家に依頼することで、従来5〜6%払っていたものが1%程度に収まることが予想されている。

システム屋の視点

クソ高いコンピュータとソフトウェアを導入する目的は、紙・鉛筆そしてFax/電話を置き換えることではない。紙・鉛筆そしてFax/電話を使っている人を削ることだ。そこを勘違いしているシステムは複雑になりがちだし、導入効果は高いとはいえない。

家を売ったり買ったりする人達からすれば今回の決定はでかい。従来媒介業者に払っていた手数料が浮くわけだから。そして、システム全体で見れば、その効果は莫大ということになる。

住宅価格の底打ちがちょっとだけ(もしかしたら、相当)早まることにもなる。ラーメン食い協会とその会員には皮肉な結果ではあるけどね。

追記

日本では人員削減に直結するシステム導入は反発を食らうことが多い。特にお役所系はその典型。お役所に飼いならされた業界も同様。このあたりをスコ〜ンと一掃するような発想をもった首長・社長が登場するようになるまで、日本の低迷は続くんではなかろうか。

どうでも良いこと

National Association of Ramen-eatersと言い出したのは、たぶんこの記事→A HousingPANIC Message for the REALTORS (ramen-eating real estate clerks) of America。2007年4月の時点で「50%価格下落」を予言していた。

Dear REALTORS of America,

It has come to our attention that unsold home inventory is at record levels, with more and more homes are being put on the market every week, and we're just getting started. This is called "exploding supply".

It also appears that home sales velocity has plummeted, as people have come to realize that you and the NAR were lying, and that real estate values can fall. People aren't buying anymore (even if they could - thank you subprime implosion), since the smart people know the same house will be cheaper next month or next year. This is called "plummeting demand".

Now, when supply is rocketing, and demand is cratering, there's this third variable called "price" that gets impacted. For homes to sell, the prices will need to come down. Drastically. And this is your job now, to help Desperate Homedebtors understand that nobody wants their home anymore, especially at last year's price.

So, it's time to do the unimaginable. It's time for you, REALTORS of America, to embrace HousingPANIC. Make HP your friend, not your enemy.

Send your sellers the link to HP. Help them understand that the game is up, homes are insanely overvalued, the fundamentals do matter, and if they want out from under their debt trap, they're gonna have to cut the price, cut it bigtime, and cut it now. And if they don't it'll get even worse tomorrow. Trust us.

Then send your prospective buyers the link to HP. Help them understand that now is a great time to buy - at 50% off. Teach them all about foreclosures, lowballing, and Desperate Homedebtors. Then get out there and lowball!

Finally, listen to the HP community when it comes to The Corrupt David Lereah, the NAR, and the usual REALTOR spin. At your next REALTOR gathering, be the one who calls for TCDL's resignation. Next time the media interviews you, or you blog, write about what a joke the NAR, your fellow REALTORS, and TCDL have become. And try telling the truth for a change - it can only help at this point. Yes, telling the truth is against your normal business model, but times have changed.

I know the idea of embracing HP is like eating glass to many of you. But at least you'd be eating something! Good luck out there. Now get those prices down - they're gonna crash anyway, so wouldn't you rather it be sooner rather than later?