在庫一層大売出しの罠

経済

Mr. Mortgageが5月13日の記事でこんなことを書いている。

For those of you who live and die by the monthly existing and new home sales report, remember, that bank REO sales are counted in the existing sales number and is very quickly becoming ‘the real estate market’. As a matter of fact, Data Quick reported that 38.4% of last month’s total CA Existing Home Sales had foreclosure action within the past 12 months, meaning much was bank REO shadow inventory. With so much new foreclosure inventory entering the system and discounts getting deeper each month, there should continue to be more bank REO sales of existing homes in the future, perhaps making it seem as the housing crisis is ending.

This is the primary problem with so many ‘analysts’ positive housing predictions. How can you truly judge inventory vs. sales numbers when the banks are taking back more homes at auction and adding to their shadow inventory than sell each month? Remember, the NAR only reports homes listed with a real estate broker as ‘inventory’ and a very small percentage of bank REO inventory is listed. The amount of ‘non-listed’ bank REO inventory is staggering.

What is most frightening is how quickly values are dropping as a result of this. With as much bank REO inventory selling for as deep of discounts as we are seeing, it is forcing an immediate and swift mark-to-market change in values of entire neighborhoods all over the state. If a few of these homes sell at a 30% discount within a mile radius of your home and they are similar properties, your home value will be negatively impacted. Very quickly, America’s real estate is being marked-to-market by the bank’s shadow inventory, accelerating a natural process that should take years. This causes even greater numbers of home owners to go into a negative equity position causing even more loan defaults. It is a vicious cycle that has never been seen before.

「Shadow inventory(隠し在庫)」という言葉が出てくるが、これはNAR(National Association of Ramen-eaters: 全米不動産協会)のMLS(Multiple Listing Service: 物件総合目録)に掲載されていない住宅在庫のこと。Mr. Mortgageはこの「隠し在庫」が急激に増えてきており、住宅価格はさらに下がるよ、と警告している。が、どれくらいの隠し在庫があるのかは上記記事からは判断できない。

Sacramento Real Estate Statistics: Countrywide vs MLS

カリフォルニア州都サクラメントの不動産状況を追っているブログSacramento Real Estate Statisticsが、Countrywideが抱える「隠し在庫」を調査した記事を5月27日に発表していた。それによれば

  • Countrywideが抱えるREO(銀行保有物件)のうち、55%がMLSに掲載されている

とのこと。つまり、45%は「隠し在庫」というわけ。

同記事によれば、これはCountrywideが隠しているのではなく、NARが全物件をMLSに載せなくなった、ということらしい。

注意するべき点

  • NAR発表の住宅在庫件数は信頼できない。
  • 在庫を隠しておいて「安売り！」と煽るのは、田舎の家具屋と同じ技だ。あわてて買っても、まだまだ安いのがでてくる。
  • そして、これらのREO物件が捌ける以上の速度で新たなREO物件が産まれているという事実。銀行のバランスシートはさらに痛む。